Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
Many people think about trading commodities and they get the image of the trading pit, similar to what you see in the movie Trading Places, where Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd corner the market on orange juice futures. While commodities trading may have looked like that in the past, in the 21st century it is electronic and commodities markets can be traded online from all corners of the globe. All that’s needed is a trading account with a broker that offers access to the commodity markets and anyone can trade commodities online.
The traditional way to trade commodities is by using futures contracts. However this is not always the best way to trade commodities. For one thing many traders don’t have a futures trading account. And trading futures requires a fairly large upfront investment. Plus futures involve leverage, and while this can inflate gains, it can also magnify losses. All of these issues can be avoided by using CFDs to trade commodities. Liquidity is never an issue with CFDs, you can get started with a few hundred dollars, and you control the leverage, or lack of leverage, when trading CFDs.
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The most popular commodities for traders are gold and oil. This is because both enjoy excellent liquidity and sources of information. However these are not necessarily the best commodities to trade. The best commodity for any trader is the one they understand the best. One where they have detailed knowledge about the market, or about supply and demand for the particular commodity. It’s this deep knowledge that makes it easier to successfully trade any commodity. And anyone can get this type of knowledge through research and study.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.